WHERE IS CLASSICAL MUSIC HEADED?
I see that this topic could indeed be broadened slightly to ask "where is classical music is headed?"
To answer this, care must be exercised in definitions. Are we talking about the new contributions to classical music by current composers, including budding new ones? Alternatively, are we talking about the overall listening patterns of the generality of current and future classical music lovers? There is a big difference, as clearly the contributions of composers in the first group could feasibly change significantly from the type of music composed by earlier composers. Yet any such change may make hardly difference to the overall listening patterns of classical fans over the next few decades. To take an extreme illustrative example, it is possible to imagine every single piece of classical music composed from now on being in the form, say, of Zappa/Zorn. Even if this were the case, it is most unlikely that this marginal supply would have hardly impact what we actually listen to, as the average changes only very slowly with respect to changes at the margin.
I make this warning because I can quite easily see the possibility emerging of people forecasting the occurrence of big "changes" ahead, without considering the marginal versus average distinction.
I reckon if we go back say 50 years the kind of classical music most people were listening to then is much the same as it is now, with the centre of the age distribution being about 1790-1820, tapering off both sides slowly (plus and minus about 100 years) to form an approximate bell shape curve . In the present day this "curve" may have widened somewhat to encompass a few more modern composers (Shostakovich, etc) but I bet the modal point has not shifted forward by more than say 10 years at most. In other words, I strongly suspect that the average age of music we are listening to is getting older on average as time passes.
This might prompt the question "won't people get fed up listening to the same old stuff?" I do not think they will for two reasons: (i) People themselves are changing, as we all eventually go to meet our maker, or wherever else. There is no reason to believe that future generations will not like Bach, Beethoven, and Brahms etc any less than we do. (ii) Even if there is some tiring of the music of these titans, I think it more likely that people will seek out supplementary material of various lesser-known contemporaries and disciples, rather than switch to much more modern alternatives in a wholesale manner. For example, as we know, there appears to be a growing interest in various high quality - but lesser well-known - 19th century piano composers like Alkan and Thalberg.
These are only personal hunches, based on casual observation. I have no magic source of data on all this to back it up with. All I have is a pretty good idea about what classical pieces are generally considered "good" or "great". I also know what kind of CDs fill the classical music shelves. I watch the concert market at least in the UK, and I listen to radio a lot (both Classic FM and Radio 3), so I know what's popular. Based on this set of information, backed up by some very limited historical research on past listening habits, I reckon my statements above are broadly correct.
If we can project forward past trends, I reckon classical music is headed nowhere fast in terms of significant changes in genre type likely to be most favoured in the forseeable future. The modal point may move forward a bit but I don't think by very much. There may be some broadening of the curve, and a possible skewing towards the present as Baroque may decline at a faster rate than the growth of some 20th century novelties, but this is highly speculative.
With a few exceptions, I say this thankfully because I am not enamoured of many modern trends. The music of Cage, to me, is awful. Boulez's music grates. Schnitkke's works (what little I have heard) are too depressing for words, and involve too much a of curious mixture of tonal/atonal passages. Zappa/Zorn is not my scene. Eunaudi is too simplistic. I fully admit I have not sampled much of any of this, but I have sampled enough to know it is most unlikely to be for me. There is ample earlier material to keep me fully satified. I confess to being a dyed-in-the wool late Classical/Romantic, and likely always will be. I am perfectly happy listening to more modern versions (e.g. Elgar, Sibelius, and Respighi) but that is about as far as I go. To bring me up-to-date, I prefer conventional Rock to these modern "classical" manifestations.
Lastly, none of this is in any way intended as criticism of other people's tastes. My own tastes have shifted around a fair bit over time. Their views are as worthy as anyone else's. It's just that I think those of my persuasion would probably outvote others in any overall assessment, as I reckon about 90% of the classical music public is with me on this.
Topaz