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Thread: The Weather Thread

  1. #1606
    Senior Member joen_cph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luchesi View Post
    Yes, the predictions are scientifically reliable, but I'd like to have one example of climate change I can point to when people ask me for one.

    The accelerated warming of the high latitudes has decreased the north-south gradient and largely contributed to the decrease in the planetary wave number, to the surprise of weather-watchers.
    Depends on your definition of climate then, if happened, major increases in temperature don't qualify. The report says an average global increase of 0.87 C in the period, Svalbard obviously way above that, about 5 times more.
    Last edited by joen_cph; Aug-16-2019 at 19:57.

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    Senior Member Clouds Weep Snowflakes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luchesi View Post
    Yes, the temperatures in the Arctic have risen very fast and so the average for the whole planet AND where most people live, hasn't been noticeable in the weather cycles.
    You do acknowledge Jerusalem is one of the cooler places in Israel, right? 30c On a summer day is nothing here.

  3. #1608
    Senior Member Luchesi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joen_cph View Post
    Depends on your definition of climate then, if happened, major increases in temperature don't qualify. The report says an average global increase of 0.87 C in the period, Svalbard obviously way above that, about 5 times more.
    This is the position I'm in;
    In a briefing a skeptical physicist says, “OK, we have a meteorologist who can't get away! What’s your best example of climate change?"

    Svalbard

    Has precipitation increased?

    Not yet.

    Are the storms clearly coming from different directions due to what's predicted from fluid dynamics?

    Not yet.

    Have the local winds changed, climatologically speaking? Windier? Records broken?

    Not yet.

    Droughts, flooding?

    Not yet.
    Last edited by Luchesi; Aug-17-2019 at 23:03.
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    Senior Member Room2201974's Avatar
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    Can I interrupt a perfectly good scope-creeped discussion and start a hotly contested debate on the weather????

    Question for you musical theorists out there: Everyone who has heard the shrieks of high wind will tell you that the sound is definitely atonal. So, if Tropical Storm Dorian* reaches hurricane wind shrieking stage, does she then lose her modal harmony?

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents

    *First cyclone in any hemisphere to be named after one of the old "church" modes!
    "He who makes songs without feeling spoils both his words and his music. " ~ Guillaume de Machaut

    "Music that is born complex is not inherently better or worse than music that is born simple." ~ Aaron Copland.

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  6. #1610
    Senior Member Luchesi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Room2201974 View Post
    Can I interrupt a perfectly good scope-creeped discussion and start a hotly contested debate on the weather????

    Question for you musical theorists out there: Everyone who has heard the shrieks of high wind will tell you that the sound is definitely atonal. So, if Tropical Storm Dorian* reaches hurricane wind shrieking stage, does she then lose her modal harmony?

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents

    *First cyclone in any hemisphere to be named after one of the old "church" modes!
    Eleanor Rigby reminds us of the Dorian mode. Maybe it'll start playing that. It all depends upon the holes that the air is whistling through.

    Ah, look at all the lonely people, where do they all come from after the storm blows over?


    added: with AGW and its increased windshear - the storm will either be blown apart or it will be stronger than expected. There's no in-between anymore I've been told.
    Last edited by Luchesi; Aug-25-2019 at 18:25.
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  8. #1611
    Senior Member Luchesi's Avatar
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    Duplicate post

    why doesn't my computer know what I intend?
    Last edited by Luchesi; Aug-25-2019 at 16:59.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luchesi View Post
    Eleanor Rigby reminds us of the Dorian mode. Maybe it'll start playing that. It all depends upon the holes that the air is whistling through.

    Ah, look at all the lonely people, where do they all come from after the storm blows over?


    added: with AGW and its increased windshear - the storm will either be blown apart or it will be stronger than expected. There's no in-between anymore I've been told.
    I've heard once you are in the eye, it switches over to John Cage's 4'33".

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    Senior Member Strange Magic's Avatar
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    How about dropping an atomic bomb into the eye of a hurricane? Seems like a great idea!!

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49471093

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  13. #1614
    Senior Member Luchesi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange Magic View Post
    How about dropping an atomic bomb into the eye of a hurricane? Seems like a great idea!!

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49471093
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  15. #1615
    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    Hurricane Dorian has just been declared Cat 4, with sustained winds of 130 mph / 215 km/h. This large hurricane is still three or four days from Florida and will be passing over very warm waters, so it should intensify further before landfall.

    Predictions are still uncertain, but the current guidance shows it coming onshore at about Palm Beach and then turning to the north, tracking just inland through most of Florida, hitting all the coastal communities including Orlando and Jacksonville. If this happens, it will be piling up a 10-20 foot storm surge ahead of it (due to its CCW rotation) and causing massive flooding just before the strongest winds hit the affected areas.

    This could be very nasty.



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  17. #1616
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    Quote Originally Posted by KenOC View Post
    Hurricane Dorian has just been declared Cat 4 ...
    This could be very nasty.
    It's still gaining intensity, heading straight west now (posted at 10:25 Eastern Standard Time) -- getting closer to a Cat 5. Still predicted to turn north near landfall but Florida would get hit hard anyway.

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  19. #1617
    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    As of this hour, Dorian is still 3+ days out. Sustained winds have increased to 150 mph (240 km/h). The forecast track now shows the hurricane passing offshore of Florida and striking the US coast farther north. But given the distance yet to travel, anything can happen.



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  21. #1618
    Senior Member Luchesi's Avatar
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    EDKzTlYWwAAX7AD.jpeg

    I shot my AR15 into the air,
    Bullets fell to earth, I knew not where...
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes - but the preservation of fire!
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    "That's all Folks!"

  23. #1620
    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    Check out the video in this BBC story on Dorian, aerial views of the northern Bahamas. This is what a Cat 5 hurricane can do to you.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49574900


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