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Thread: The Weather Thread

  1. #1216
    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    Mangkhut -- with 255 kph (160 mph) wind gusts. Now THERE'S a storm! After crossing the Philippines, it will hit China (maybe Hong Kong) and preparations are underway. This article says that the Philippines are hit by an average of 20 typhoons and storms each year.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...D=ansmsnnews11
    Last edited by KenOC; Sep-14-2018 at 04:32.


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  3. #1217
    Senior Member Pyotr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KenOC View Post
    I was looking back on the NOAA hurricane site and noted that five days ago, when Florence was still way out in the mid-Atlantic, it was forecast to hit the Carolina coast in five days. That forecast never changed. Good job, people!

    Particularly impressive since most storms on that track curl north after passing Bermuda and miss the mainland entirely. Some models at the time had Florence doing just that.
    I agree with that, for the most part. They did predict the path of the storm quite accurately. But they made two mistakes on purpose to, IMO, help their own agenda — to boost tv ratings,
    One, they predicted that the eye would hit land on Wednesday evening, it didn’t get there until 7am this morning, Friday. And two, they predicted that it would be a cat four at that time, it was “only” a one, which is a big difference. A category four has speeds of 130–156 mph; a category one 74–95 mph.
    They did the first so people would tune in earlier, and the second to embellish the situation, which makes it more news worthy.
    They had a weatherman in Philadelphia who got railroaded out of town because he would continually predict snowfalls , that the other networks didn’t — and never happened. He reasons were obvious. Snowstorms mean big tv ratings for the networks.
    I notice that the weather channel has two dozen meteorologists working on this storm, most of them on site. It would be a damn shame if they all got swept out to sea.

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  5. #1218
    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    Well...the NOAA site I've been following is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is obviously not commercial and has no TV stations. It correctly forecast the extent of strengthening, although at one point they forecasted a brief Cat-5 strength before a pre-strike weakening. That didn't happen, and the near-shore weakening was more than anticipated. Overall, though, I think they did pretty well.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
    Last edited by KenOC; Sep-14-2018 at 17:51.


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  7. #1219
    Senior Member Luchesi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pyotr View Post
    I agree with that, for the most part. They did predict the path of the storm quite accurately. But they made two mistakes on purpose to, IMO, help their own agenda — to boost tv ratings,
    One, they predicted that the eye would hit land on Wednesday evening, it didn’t get there until 7am this morning, Friday. And two, they predicted that it would be a cat four at that time, it was “only” a one, which is a big difference. A category four has speeds of 130–156 mph; a category one 74–95 mph.
    They did the first so people would tune in earlier, and the second to embellish the situation, which makes it more news worthy.
    They had a weatherman in Philadelphia who got railroaded out of town because he would continually predict snowfalls , that the other networks didn’t — and never happened. He reasons were obvious. Snowstorms mean big tv ratings for the networks.
    I notice that the weather channel has two dozen meteorologists working on this storm, most of them on site. It would be a damn shame if they all got swept out to sea.
    I've seen some very intelligent people (physicists) take the data that's available to everyone and try to make a snow forecast. Everyone should try it. The obvious ones are snow, thunderstorms, high wind, hail, record cold and the onset of clearing weather.
    If a little knowledge is dangerous, where is the man who has so much as to be out of danger?
    -- T. H. Huxley

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    Senior Member joen_cph's Avatar
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    "So dramatic! Dude from the weather channel bracing for his life, as 2 dudes just stroll past. "



    He seems to have rehearsed certain leg and body movements that picture stormy winds.
    Last edited by joen_cph; Sep-15-2018 at 06:51.

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  11. #1221
    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joen_cph View Post
    "So dramatic! Dude from the weather channel bracing for his life, as 2 dudes just stroll past."
    This is true hurricane hilarity. It reminds me of a couple of years ago on our local TV. Rain was expected so the camera crews were sent out go get pictures of the deluge. However, there were only sprinkles. One crew put their TV camera at ant's-eye level in a rain gutter to make the pitiful trickle of moisture look like a raging river. It didn't work.


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  13. #1222
    Junior Member Kiki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KenOC View Post
    Mangkhut -- with 255 kph (160 mph) wind gusts. Now THERE'S a storm! After crossing the Philippines, it will hit China (maybe Hong Kong) and preparations are underway. This article says that the Philippines are hit by an average of 20 typhoons and storms each year.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...D=ansmsnnews11
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVFWPugC55Y

    This was what happened in HK earlier today. Macau was hit even worse. HK is protected geographically by the continent, and being a city, the damage is often much less severe than in the Philippines which is directly exposed to the super typhoon. We are lucky here. My thoughts are with those who have suffered. The wind has subsided now. There will be a few days of heavy rain as an aftermath, and then usually followed by unbearable hot and humid weather.

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    I am jealous of Canadian Met Office. Even a village with 1.000 population publishes the long term averages. Good for Canada.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Simpson

    In Turkey, only provincial capitals publish the long term official averages that really sucks. I dont understand why they dont publish the long term averages of other districts of the provinces in the country. I am angry with Turkish Met Office. They have weather stations in every districts of the provinces but they do not publish the long term averages. They just publish daily lows and highs.

    Çaldıran, which is a district of Van Province, is where the lowest official temperature in the country was recorded in January 1990 with -46.4*C. But its long term official averages are not published because it is not a provincial capital. However, the lowest temp recorded in the provincial capital of Van Province was only -28.7*C. A great difference! So the provincial capital of Van Province do not really represent of the climate of Van Province.

    The provincial capital in the country that has coldest official average lows in winter is Ardahan with an average low of -17*C in January and its all time record low is -39.8*C but there is a higher elevated district called Göle in Ardahan Province, which is always having colder official lows at night than the provincial capital throughout the year, which is also normal since the district is higher elevated than the provincial capital. So provincial capitals do not represent the climate of the entire provinces. Because of that, I am angry with Turkish Met Office. I even called the met office asking why they do not publish the long term averages of other districts of the provinces and they said they just don't.

    And unofficial weather websites such as climate.data.org are unrealiable sources which I dont take seriously. I stick to official averages. There was a foreign troll on a weather site I used to spend time who was insistent on putting ''climate.data.org''' averages for a district in Turkey in wikipedia, which is an unofficial and unrealiable weather site. He was putting it in wikipedia and I was removing it from wikipedia. He kept putting it on wikipedia just to **** me off. I gave up the forum for that reason.
    Last edited by atsizat; Sep-17-2018 at 00:23.

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  17. #1224
    Senior Member Tristan's Avatar
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    The weather has been stunningly good here lately. Today was maybe the clearest day all summer.

    I'll shut up now.
    A way a lone a last a loved a long the riverrun, past Eve and Adam's, from swerve of shore to bend of bay, brings us by a commodius vicus of recirculation back to Howth Castle and Environs.

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    Senior Member Dan Ante's Avatar
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    We have very meaningful forecasts eg Temp now 12.4 degC feels like 12.6 degC.
    "Understeer is when you hit the wall with the front of the car, oversteer is when you hit the wall with the rear of the car.

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  21. #1226
    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tristan View Post
    The weather has been stunningly good here lately. Today was maybe the clearest day all summer.
    Yes, down here we've been running in the mid-80s (~30C) every day, high 60s to low 70s at night. Not bad!


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