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Thread: How serious is the new coronavirus?

  1. #136
    Senior Member eljr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jacck View Post
    I do not want to spread national stereotypes, but I traveled all over China for 6 months, and the hygienic habits there were really poor. Not just the wet markets, caged animals, raw meat overrun with flies, public toilets, but also the people spiting on the floor everywhere, coughing without covering mouths etc. That was 15 years ago and I know the CCP wanted to implement some programs to improve the situation, but I do not know how successful they were. Here children are taught from the youngest age to cover their mouths when coughing in public
    I have never seen hygiene habits that are not poor, anywhere. Humans are pigs is my opinion.

    Then, one someone is reasonably hygiene we call them "germaphobes."
    Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.
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  3. #137
    Senior Member Jacck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eljr View Post
    I have never seen hygiene habits that are not poor, anywhere. Humans are pigs is my opinion.

    Then, one someone is reasonably hygiene we call them "germaphobes."
    too much hygiene is not good either. Our immune systems evolved to fight various microorganisms, the microbiome in our bodies is huge. Too sterile modern environments are blamed for the increase in allergies etc. Experiments on animals bred in completely sterile environments show that they do not develop normally. Like much else in life, hygiene is about the right balance between too much and too little.
    Last edited by Jacck; Feb-14-2020 at 08:09.

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  5. #138
    Senior Member Jacck's Avatar
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    good site for monitoring the disease updates
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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  7. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by schigolch View Post
    Of course, the evolution in Japan is not good. I think they are on the verge of being a new major focus of the outbreak. Let's see.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ty-locked-down

    Coronavirus: Japan braces for hundreds more cases as Hubei lockdown continues

    As we were discussing some days ago, the situation in Japan is becoming more and more worrying.

    “We agreed that the present situation represents the early stage of a domestic outbreak. This could progress further,” said Takaji Wakita, the chief of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, after the first meeting of a task force at the prime minister’s office.

    Pressure on Japan’s health services increased again on Monday with the arrival in Tokyo of a government-chartered flight carrying 65 Japanese nationals from Wuhan, bringing the total number repatriated from the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak to 763.

    Japan’s health minister, Katsunobu Kato, urged the public to avoid crowds and “non-essential gatherings”, including notoriously packed commuter trains and warned the country was “entering a new phase” in the outbreak of the virus.

  8. #140
    Senior Member Jacck's Avatar
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  9. #141
    Senior Member Tikoo Tuba's Avatar
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    It all seems like a world-wide drill for a bio-weapon attack or laboratory accident . Quite amazing .

  10. #142
    Senior Member CnC Bartok's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jacck View Post
    too much hygiene is not good either. Our immune systems evolved to fight various microorganisms, the microbiome in our bodies is huge. Too sterile modern environments are blamed for the increase in allergies etc. Experiments on animals bred in completely sterile environments show that they do not develop normally. Like much else in life, hygiene is about the right balance between too much and too little.
    So are you suggesting selective coughing and sneezing? Only cough/sneeze/spit at anyone who looks under the weather and whose immune system could do with a little pick-me-up......?
    Last edited by CnC Bartok; Feb-18-2020 at 19:00.

  11. #143
    Senior Member Jacck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CnC Bartok View Post
    So are you suggesting selective coughing and sneezing? Only cough/sneeze/spit at anyone who looks under the weather and whose immune system could do with a little pick-me-up......?
    Freud was a pervert and thought that children put stuff in their mouth because they are going through some "oral stage" of sexual development. The actual reason is likely evolutionary, so that children come into contant with as much microbes as possible and build up their microbiome.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/health/27brod.html

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  13. #144
    Senior Member DaveM's Avatar
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    The latest mortality overall rate is estimated at 2.3%, more than the flu, but still quite less than SARS. I’m still not ready to believe the mortality figure is as low as that, but we’ll see...

  14. #145
    Senior Member DaveM's Avatar
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    My wife fell on her knee yesterday which meant a trip to urgent care for a possible X-Ray. The waiting room was pretty full with 4 people wearing masks, one of them with a frequent wet cough. It was unnerving. The doctor said that they are seeing a lot of Influenza A and people coming in with a cough are instructed to wear masks. I’ve had the vaccine and also keep Tamiflu at the ready.

  15. #146
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    Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of cases: 2,70% total, 3,11% in Wuhan, 0,65% in rest of China, 0,50% in rest of the world.

    Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of recovered: 12%.

  16. #147
    Senior Member Jacck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by schigolch View Post
    Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of cases: 2,70% total, 3,11% in Wuhan, 0,65% in rest of China, 0,50% in rest of the world.
    Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of recovered: 12%.
    How can you compute mortality by dividing the number of deaths (cases with an outcome) by the number of ongoing infections (cases without an outcome)?
    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
    it is too early to know the true mortality, ie the probability of death in case of contracting the virus. It is difficult to estimate it in case of an early spreading epidemic
    Last edited by Jacck; Feb-19-2020 at 12:44.

  17. #148
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    It's what WHO is doing and sharing.

    Of course, the only part we know with certainty so far is the numerator.

    For the denominator we have uncertainties, such as what will be the outcome of each pending case, but also the true number of cases, as there is a strong possibility that there are very mild or even asymptomatic cases that are not counted.

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  19. #149
    Senior Member Luchesi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by schigolch View Post
    It's what WHO is doing and sharing.

    Of course, the only part we know with certainty so far is the numerator.

    For the denominator we have uncertainties, such as what will be the outcome of each pending case, but also the true number of cases, as there is a strong possibility that there are very mild or even asymptomatic cases that are not counted.
    I would think that the only fatality rate that teaches us about this virus would be the fatality rate of strong and healthy individuals in the prime of their life. If we could compare that rate with the same rate from SARS we would have an insight to help us.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes - but the preservation of fire!
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  20. #150
    DrMike
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    The overwhelming, nearly total number of deaths from this virus are occurring in China, not other countries. I realize that partly this is due to most cases being in China, but the mortality rates are not the same, when you simply look at deaths by percent of cases. It could be that a lot of the reason behind the mortality rates in China may be linked to poor healthcare in the country. They seem to be overwhelmed, and I'm doubtful supportive care is being delivered. They tried to impress everybody by building a new hospital to treat patients of this virus in 6 days - apparently a hospital built that quickly is just about as crappy as one would predict. There are lots of things we can build quickly and should marvel about modern technology. Hospitals shouldn't be one of them.

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