Page 2 of 142 FirstFirst 1234561252102 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 2130

Thread: Coronavirus Discussion WITHOUT POLITICAL COMMENTS

  1. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Turkey
    Posts
    347
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Rock View Post
    Sure. Tell that to the doctors and nurses.
    The way I see it is way over too exeggerated.
    Last edited by mmsbls; May-12-2020 at 15:16. Reason: Removed political comment

  2. #17
    Senior Member arpeggio's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Burke, Virginia, USA
    Posts
    3,358
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Even without the politics(?) it is getting nasty.
    It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious. And I am a very ingenious fellow

  3. Likes Rogerx, mountmccabe liked this post
  4. #18
    Senior Member Ekim the Insubordinate's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Location
    Ohio, USA
    Posts
    411
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Don't worry, the coronavirus doesn't discriminate. It takes both believers and non-believers. It might take more non-believers if they properly avoid doing anything that might protect them.
    Last edited by Ekim the Insubordinate; May-12-2020 at 14:41.

  5. Likes Art Rock liked this post
  6. #19
    Senior Member EdwardBast's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    4,874
    Post Thanks / Like
    Blog Entries
    8

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by atsizat View Post
    The way I see it is way over too exeggerated.
    You haven't had a friend who died of it, have you? I have: A healthy man in great physical condition.
    Last edited by mmsbls; May-12-2020 at 15:18. Reason: Removed deleted portion of post

    What greater comfort does time afford than the objects of terror re-encountered and their fraudulence exposed in the flash of reason?
    — William Gaddis, The Recognitions

    Originality is a device untalented people use to impress other untalented people and to protect themselves from talented people.
    Basil Valentine

  7. Likes DaveM liked this post
  8. #20
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Posts
    270
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by atsizat View Post
    How many hates will I get if I say I dont believe in Corona?

    I think all this fear is made up by world meroeorlogical service.

    Somebody wants corona virus to look worse than it actually is.

    All this fear about corona is bu******. I dont think its something any worse than the viruses we had previous years.


    If I was the president, I would punish anybody with money who says the word corona or wears masks.

    As far as I know, Turkmenistan does something
    smilar. Well done to Turkmenistan.
    I think it's pushing it a bit far to say that it is made up. On the other hand, the new Corona strain looks like it's shaping up to be along the lines (in impact) of a fairly bad flu outbreak, but not one of the horrendous ones of the past. In that sense you are probably correct that it is no worse than viruses that we have had in previous years. However, it is one of the bad ones.
    There seems to be a bit of a false dichotomy, in that you seem to have to be in one of two camps: (i) not a big deal at all, or (ii) unprecedented catastrophe, so let's close down the world. The middle ground position which does not seem to be possible is (iii) this is a bad virus so urgent action is needed, but putting in place an unprecedented shut down of the world economy on the basis of educated guesswork (which is all we have, or can have, at the moment) may well be an experiment that will do more harm than good, in health as well as economic terms.
    Sweden seems to be more in the camp of (iii), and I hope it works out OK for them. At the moment their experience of Covid 19 does not seem to be worse than that of countries which have gone for more extreme approaches, and they remain perhaps the most interesting example to watch.

  9. Likes atsizat liked this post
  10. #21
    Senior Member science's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    The Eastern and Northern
    Posts
    18,434
    Post Thanks / Like
    Blog Entries
    51

    Default

    South Korea, one of the countries that has best dealt with the first wave, may be beginning a second wave. The total number of cases increased yesterday for the first time since mid-March.

    In the US, it looks like things might be beginning to cool off a little in the NYC area, but perhaps not in the rest of the country. I'm very skeptical of the decision to "reopen economies," but we'll see. The total number of known cases in the US hasn't gone down or held steady for a day since late February.

    I suspect that this is an even bigger deal than we've realized yet, both for the US and for the world, in terms not only of suffering and death and grief now but in terms of its long-term cultural impact. I hope to live to see how this affects the worldview of the young people experiencing it.

    Y'all stay safe. Lots of craziness is out there, so be as safe as you can for yourself and your family.
    Liberty for wolves is death to the lambs.

  11. Likes Kieran liked this post
  12. #22
    Senior Member Kieran's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    2,937
    Post Thanks / Like
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by science View Post
    South Korea, one of the countries that has best dealt with the first wave, may be beginning a second wave. The total number of cases increased yesterday for the first time since mid-March.
    How are South Korea handling that? Same way as the first time? Any further restrictions?
    The Brain - is wider than the Sky

  13. #23
    Senior Member Ekim the Insubordinate's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Location
    Ohio, USA
    Posts
    411
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by science View Post
    South Korea, one of the countries that has best dealt with the first wave, may be beginning a second wave. The total number of cases increased yesterday for the first time since mid-March.

    In the US, it looks like things might be beginning to cool off a little in the NYC area, but perhaps not in the rest of the country. I'm very skeptical of the decision to "reopen economies," but we'll see. The total number of known cases in the US hasn't gone down or held steady for a day since late February.

    I suspect that this is an even bigger deal than we've realized yet, both for the US and for the world, in terms not only of suffering and death and grief now but in terms of its long-term cultural impact. I hope to live to see how this affects the worldview of the young people experiencing it.

    Y'all stay safe. Lots of craziness is out there, so be as safe as you can for yourself and your family.
    It's not going to "go down" because we are testing more. So while we will still continue with tracking confirmed cases, it is a tricky statistic to use for anything since it is a moving target, so to speak.

    I had heard somewhere, but can't find the source, so it might be bogus - that while the number of confirmed cases is still going up, the percentage of positive tests as we increase testing is going down.

  14. #24
    Senior Member Room2201974's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Location
    More Souther Than J.D.
    Posts
    1,345
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I can only express in a negative number the likelihood that my State will ever acknowledge the true death count. It will take future historians and researchers time to sift thru the data and compare it to obits. I can tell you that what I hear from the ICU nurse across the street does not jibe with "official reports." There is a false impression that my State is somehow "safer" than it really is. I can't see this as being the prudent course of action as it jeopardizes the health of others.

    Because we know we are being lied to we have established a very simple and rational view of our continued lockdown: when doctors and scientists say that it's okay for hospitals to have visitors, then it will be okay to be in crowds and come out of our self imposed quarantine. We don't have a choice - underlying medical conditions make any risk a fools errand. So while our state is officially halfway "open" we aren't buying any of it.

    We order take out, have our groceries delivered, and the outdoor activities that we have engaged in have been far, far, away from other people. When it comes to planning my wife could run circles around Joseph (he of the many coloured coat) - we can keep this up pretty much indefinitely - because we knew we had little choice. The Spanish Flu came in four waves and lasted 10 months. This is going to last longer.

    On a more positive personal note I've used these last two months (our 60th day of lockdown is today) to spend a lot of time pushing myself musically. The result is that any day now my playing will approach the almost passable level.
    I wrote a song about dental floss. Did anyone's teeth get cleaner? ~ Frank Zappa

  15. #25
    Senior Member science's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    The Eastern and Northern
    Posts
    18,434
    Post Thanks / Like
    Blog Entries
    51

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kieran View Post
    How are South Korea handling that? Same way as the first time? Any further restrictions?
    Not that I know of. SK didn't actually lock down the first time. Mostly they relied on testing and tracing.

    It's pretty impressive actually. Yesterday I got a text message from the government letting me know that someone who lives in my neighborhood had been at a club where a person now known to have been infected had gone. There's some kind of website (I haven't visited it) that shows the movements of people who've been found to be infected to help people figure out if they're at risk.

    Based on what I observed over the past couple of weekends in Seoul, I'd guess they'll have a lot of new cases within the next few weeks because there was a kind of over exuberant bounce back from social distancing.... If even one person in the neighborhoods I was in had the virus, quite a few more people would've caught it.

    The good thing is that testing is so abundant here and almost everyone is eager to take basic precautions, but it seems like as a society they might have let down their guard too soon.

    I feel almost ridiculous saying that while looking at numbers in the US. The majority of US states had more new known cases yesterday than the entire country of South Korea, which has about 1/6th the population of the US. But if South Korea let its guard down too soon, then almost everywhere in the US is too. OTOH Seoul is a much bigger and more densely packed metropolitan area than anywhere in the US except NYC, so maybe geography will save the US from at least some of the potential consequences.

    I have a hard time scaling my thoughts. Given how frightening it is in Korea to learn this news, how can I conceive of what is going on in the US?
    Liberty for wolves is death to the lambs.

  16. Likes mountmccabe, Kieran liked this post
  17. #26
    Senior Member Ekim the Insubordinate's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Location
    Ohio, USA
    Posts
    411
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    It seems like the places where responses have been better have a few things in common - relatively small in size, easily isolated (island nations, small foreign borders, fewer neighboring countries). So South Korea has the benefit of it's only land border being with North Korea, and there isn't a lot of traffic back and forth there. Otherwise they are surrounded by water - a great natural barrier.

    In contrast, you have the U.S., bordering 2 countries with very lengthy land borders, the Southern one already notoriously porous. That being said, I don't know the numbers, but I'm not sure Mexico was a major source for infection. Our air travel entry points were our downfall, particularly Seattle and NYC. Perhaps heightened shutdown of these airports of entry, at least initially until proper screening procedures can be put in place, is the better option. Of course, a lot of that first depends on getting proper and prompt notification that there is something that might be coming our way.

    I think this was also the case with the hardest hit European countries, especially those surrounded by numerous other countries and travel between them so open as part of the EU. Germany is obviously the notable exception.

  18. #27
    Senior Member Jacck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    Czech Republic
    Posts
    4,158
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by science View Post
    Not that I know of. SK didn't actually lock down the first time. Mostly they relied on testing and tracing.

    It's pretty impressive actually. Yesterday I got a text message from the government letting me know that someone who lives in my neighborhood had been at a club where a person now known to have been infected had gone. There's some kind of website (I haven't visited it) that shows the movements of people who've been found to be infected to help people figure out if they're at risk.
    South Korea had the lessons from SARS and MERS. Their response to SARS was not that impressive, but they obviously learned. These smart quarantines are what our government is trying to build instead of lockdowns. Exactly as you say, the will use cell phone and credit card data to trace the infected people and send warnings to people who might have come into contant with them etc. They did some preliminary testing and claim that it is as effective as full lockdown.

  19. Likes mountmccabe liked this post
  20. #28
    Senior Member science's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    The Eastern and Northern
    Posts
    18,434
    Post Thanks / Like
    Blog Entries
    51

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ekim the Insubordinate View Post
    It's not going to "go down" because we are testing more. So while we will still continue with tracking confirmed cases, it is a tricky statistic to use for anything since it is a moving target, so to speak.

    I had heard somewhere, but can't find the source, so it might be bogus - that while the number of confirmed cases is still going up, the percentage of positive tests as we increase testing is going down.
    My point was to compare the US to what I'd written about South Korea in the first paragraph. The number of cases in South Korea had been going down for several weeks until the past few days. On many days during that span, the only new cases they found were people returning to Korea. The US hasn't had any days like that.

    I don't think the difference between the countries is due to America testing more. At this time the US has tested far more people than South Korea -- 29k tests per million people in the USA versus 13k per million in South Korea -- but the number of known cases in the two countries has been going in very different directions. The US currently has 4k known cases per million people, almost 20x as many as South Korea. (The numbers in terms of deaths are much worse. South Korea so far has had 5 known deaths due to coronavirus per million people, while the US has almost 50x times that.)

    Instead, the reason SK's numbers were going down is that people had been recovering or dying faster than new cases were found.

    Anyway, it's scary here with ~60 new known cases over the past few days. All but thirteen states had more than 60 new known cases just yesterday. Like I said in the post before, maybe the lower population density will save America and the higher population density will doom South Korea, but for now I'm just having a really hard time comprehending the enormity of the catastrophe in America.

    Over 80k known deaths. About 1 out of 4000 Americans are known to have died of this so far. About 1 in 300 people are known to have an active case.

    As scary as it is here in South Korea right now, I do wish all my elderly family members were here. It's hard to think about.
    Liberty for wolves is death to the lambs.

  21. #29
    Senior Member science's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    The Eastern and Northern
    Posts
    18,434
    Post Thanks / Like
    Blog Entries
    51

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ekim the Insubordinate View Post
    It seems like the places where responses have been better have a few things in common - relatively small in size, easily isolated (island nations, small foreign borders, fewer neighboring countries). So South Korea has the benefit of it's only land border being with North Korea, and there isn't a lot of traffic back and forth there. Otherwise they are surrounded by water - a great natural barrier.

    In contrast, you have the U.S., bordering 2 countries with very lengthy land borders, the Southern one already notoriously porous. That being said, I don't know the numbers, but I'm not sure Mexico was a major source for infection. Our air travel entry points were our downfall, particularly Seattle and NYC. Perhaps heightened shutdown of these airports of entry, at least initially until proper screening procedures can be put in place, is the better option. Of course, a lot of that first depends on getting proper and prompt notification that there is something that might be coming our way.

    I think this was also the case with the hardest hit European countries, especially those surrounded by numerous other countries and travel between them so open as part of the EU. Germany is obviously the notable exception.
    Wouldn't the number of people traveling in and out be a bigger factor than the length or nature of the borders?

    And anyway, once the virus gets into a country, no matter how it gets there, wouldn't domestic factors (like the average age of the population) play a bigger role than borders?

    The US's problems don't seem to include large numbers of infected Mexicans and Canadians pouring across the border.
    Liberty for wolves is death to the lambs.

  22. Likes mountmccabe, pianozach liked this post
  23. #30
    Senior Member science's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    The Eastern and Northern
    Posts
    18,434
    Post Thanks / Like
    Blog Entries
    51

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jacck View Post
    South Korea had the lessons from SARS and MERS. Their response to SARS was not that impressive, but they obviously learned. These smart quarantines are what our government is trying to build instead of lockdowns. Exactly as you say, the will use cell phone and credit card data to trace the infected people and send warnings to people who might have come into contant with them etc. They did some preliminary testing and claim that it is as effective as full lockdown.
    I hope it works for you guys.
    Liberty for wolves is death to the lambs.

  24. Likes Jacck liked this post

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •