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Thread: Coronavirus Discussion WITHOUT POLITICAL COMMENTS

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    Default Coronavirus Discussion WITHOUT POLITICAL COMMENTS

    There is a Community Forum thread on the coronavirus that was started back in January. A large number of members posted in the thread, but with time many of those members stopped posting. The current thread has become overly political and likely unwelcome to many. The moderators felt that the topic was important to many so we tried to keep that thread going, but I believe we failed to keep it welcoming to most members.

    In the interests of having a coronavirus thread in which many more members will feel comfortable participating, I have started this one. The rules are fairly simple - no politics. What can be discussed?

    The coronavirus
    Statistics about Covid-19 infections, deaths, mortality rates
    Information on how to interpret these statistics
    Testing kits, testing protocols, testing statistics
    Details of personal protective equipment and how it affects health care workers
    Potential vaccines and drugs to reduce symptoms or infections
    Policies to prevent viral spread
    Policies to reduce the financial effect
    Information from or about health care workers
    Personal feelings about the virus or policies related to the virus
    Reliability of information about the virus
    What actions should be taken to prevent future such outbreaks
    Differences between policies in different countries
    Studies related to the Virus
    .
    .
    And lots, and lots, and lots of other things related to the virus

    What can't you discuss?

    DO NOT POST PURELY POLITICAL CONTENT.
    DO NOT POST PROVOCATIVE POLITICAL RELATED CONTENT

    If you are not sure if something will be considered too political, do not post it. If you are not sure if something will be considered provocative, do not post it. If you feel the coronavirus cannot be discussed without politics, do not post here.

    Political posts will be removed and a PM warning sent. A second violation of these rules will result in a formal warning. After a third violation we will revoke privileges to post in ANY THREAD in the Community Forum.

    Enjoy the thread and be considerate of other members.

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    Senior Member KenOC's Avatar
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    After a very late start, Russia is experiencing a rapid growth in Covid-19 cases. It has recorded over 10,000 cases a day for the last nine days and now has the fourth highest case count in the world. It looks like after the current day it will surpass the UK and take the number three position.

    Fortunately its fatality count (at least as reported) is still pretty low, considering. Let’s hope it stays that way.


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    Quote Originally Posted by KenOC View Post
    After a very late start, Russia is experiencing a rapid growth in Covid-19 cases. It has recorded over 10,000 cases a day for the last nine days and now has the fourth highest case count in the world. It looks like after the current day it will surpass the UK and take the number three position.

    Fortunately its fatality count (at least as reported) is still pretty low, considering. Let’s hope it stays that way.
    I've read in the Dutch news that deaths by lung diseases have gone up dramatically in Russia in the past few weeks. The obvious explanation is that these are unidentified Corona deaths.
    I treat my music like I treat my pets. It’s something to own, care about and curate with attention to detail. From a blog by hjr.

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    In reports/discussions of the recent retrospective study that indicated a possible reduction of morbidity and mortality from the virus with both oral and IV famotidine/Pepcid, there was mentioned the following anecdotes by one of the lead investigators (where oral famotidine was used):

    Dr David Tuveson, director of the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Cancer Center, recommended famotidine to his 44-year-old sister, an engineer with New York City hospitals. She had tested positive for COVID-19 and developed a fever. Her lips became dark blue from hypoxia. She took her first megadose of oral famotidine on 28 March. The next morning, her fever broke and her oxygen saturation returned to a normal range. Five sick co-workers, including three with confirmed COVID-19, also showed dramatic improvements after taking over-the-counter versions of the drug, according a spreadsheet of case histories Dr Tuveson shared.
    Last edited by DaveM; May-12-2020 at 07:55.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KenOC View Post
    After a very late start, Russia is experiencing a rapid growth in Covid-19 cases.
    Interstingly they start lifting some restrictions as of today. It seems that the nations with "late start" have better information and the experience of others to make better decisions.
    Maybe we get some kind of good strategy worked out universally to deal with this and future pandemics.
    Last edited by erki; May-12-2020 at 08:40.

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    But don't dare to suggest there isn't anything at all remarkable about old people dying in nursing care!! Since when is this something new to Covid-19? Hysteria unlimited.

    Listen up; 80 years plus people die every day in nursing care, from the flu and any number of ailments. That's a feature of being in 'god's waiting room'. To conflate this with a world-wide hysteria about the pandemic (which the vast majority of under 60s do not die from) suggests an unhealthy degree of mollycoddling and preciousness completely out of step with the real, harsh world of living and dying.

    But the writers on here need not worry; they are going to be protected from life's depredations due to the very fact that they're very very special. If you're all breathlessly waiting for a vaccine I've got some very bad news.

    Try some Bach; he lived with death his whole life and wrote some of the most magnificent music ever created on the planet from his position of mortal insecurity. I wonder what difference it would have made for him to be huffing and puffing and living in fear and moral panic?

    A consequence of living with the relentless fear of climate catastrophe and its endless old testament apocalypse tropes has meant that a lot of people who fear extinction have actually forgotten what it means to be alive.
    Last edited by Christabel; May-12-2020 at 11:28.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Christabel View Post
    But don't dare to suggest there isn't anything at all remarkable about old people dying in nursing care!! Since when is this something new to Covid-19? Hysteria unlimited.

    Listen up; 80 years plus people die every day in nursing care, from the flu and any number of ailments. That's a feature of being in 'god's waiting room'. To conflate this with a world-wide hysteria about the pandemic (which the vast majority of under 60s do not die from) suggests an unhealthy degree of mollycoddling and preciousness completely out of step with the real, harsh world of living and dying.
    I am an actuary by training, and worked for decades on annuity contracts (which pay a lifetime income to those in retirement) and also on care annuities (which are purchased when people enter care homes, and pay out a lifetime income for those). The typical life span of people from entering care homes is about 2 years in the UK (although for those who pay their own fees, and tend to be of higher social class, it is a year or so longer). The impact of Covid 19 on care homes is likely to be that there is a marked increase in deaths currently, but that will then work through, and the death rate will be below normal soon (because those who might otherwise have died in December will have died in April instead). Another issue will also arise for care homes, in that they may find it harder to fill places, because they will have an unusually high number of vacancies, and there may be reluctance among the elderly to enter care homes, if they are seen as high risk because of the earlier pattern of deaths.

    One way of looking at these matters is by reference to expected number of life years lost. On that basis the death of a young person can lead to (say) a loss of 70 years of expected future life, whereas that of someone in a care home means a loss of 2 years of expected life. This might sound callous, but on the other hand everyone knows how the death of a young person does seem so cruel, whereas the death of an elderly person often sparks thoughts of a long life well lived (hopefully).

    I have fairly recently lost both my parents (who died in care homes), and both were (in a sense) ready to go, my father in particular. It's not really possible to generalise about personal situations, but I am certainly glad that they are not around to experience being cut off from family in an environment of fear, in an apparent attempt to lengthen their lives, when they would have preferred to spend the inevitably brief time left to them being able to meet up with friends and family.

    My feeling is that the negative impact of lockdown measures is heavy (mental health of the young, missed screening tests, missed treatments, etc) but hard to count, and the positive impact is limited once the possibility of health services being overwhelmed is ameliorated, with lockdown then serving only to spread out the deaths rather than materially reduce them, but it is easier to measure. Hence, I think politicians are running scared of the media because they will be blamed for Covid 19 deaths and so have to be seen to be doing something, and they are less likely to be blamed for other deaths which result from the lockdown itself (because those are harder to count).
    Last edited by Eclectic Al; May-12-2020 at 12:02. Reason: Correcting a typo

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    Again I have to say that the UK death total is terrible, but about as all-inclusive as it can be. Some countries may not be including non-hospital deaths or deaths where Covid-19 was diagnosed but which was not necessarily the actual cause of death. The UK is factoring all of this in, which is obviously going to make the death rate look far worse than those countries who set different, less rigid, parameters. This isn't a pop at any of those who report their figures in good faith, but the fluctuation in statistical criteria from country to country means that either some nations' mortality rates are artificially low compared to the UK, or that those of the UK are artificially high. I hope I'm not premature in saying this, but the reduction in total UK deaths over the last three days (even allowing for the post-weekend time lag in reporting numbers) is cause for optimism. What does frustrate me is no information relating the amount of recoveries there have been in the UK, which means that the current cases total is a travesty because only deaths are being subtracted from it.
    Last edited by elgars ghost; May-12-2020 at 12:02.
    '...a violator of his word, a libertine over head and ears in debt and disgrace, a despiser of domestic ties, the companion of gamblers and demireps, a man who has just closed half a century without a single claim on the gratitude of his country or the respect of posterity...' - Leigh Hunt on the Prince Regent (later George IV).

    ὃν οἱ θεοὶ φιλοῦσιν ἀποθνῄσκει νέος [Those whom the gods love die young] - Menander

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    Oh Christ a Bell you are a heartless son of a gun you cant compare the times of Bach with to day we have matured a bit since then, well most have, just remember the 80s+ are some of the ones that prevented the world being taken over by a certain little ex Corporal that wanted to cleanse the world of all those filthy ... you know what I am getting at, they are the people that you should thank for the fact that you can express "free speech" well most of the time admittedly there are still people that like to try and control what you say but they cant stop the old grey matter from working things out, btw have you heard that a mutant of C19 has now started on our children? not to mention all the front line workers. I suggest that 100% of the 80+ know exactly what it is like to be alive and they value life a hell of a lot more than you do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrdoc View Post
    Oh Christ a Bell you are a heartless son of a gun you cant compare the times of Bach with to day we have matured a bit since then, well most have, just remember the 80s+ are some of the ones that prevented the world being taken over by a certain little ex Corporal that wanted to cleanse the world of all those filthy ... you know what I am getting at, they are the people that you should thank for the fact that you can express "free speech" well most of the time admittedly there are still people that like to try and control what you say but they cant stop the old grey matter from working things out, btw have you heard that a mutant of C19 has now started on our children? not to mention all the front line workers. I suggest that 100% of the 80+ know exactly what it is like to be alive and they value life a hell of a lot more than you do.
    Matured? Oh, so you're a Darwinian who thinks that all life before the 21st century was a dress rehearsal for the real thing. Uh, no, it's ALL part of the human condition. This woman agrees with me:

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/0...-virus-itself/
    Last edited by Christabel; May-12-2020 at 12:07.

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    Christ o bell is that your best shot?....
    Last edited by mrdoc; May-12-2020 at 12:15.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eclectic Al View Post
    I am an actuary by training, and worked for decades on annuity contracts (which pay a lifetime income to those in retirement) and also on care annuities (which are purchased when people enter care homes, and pay out a lifetime income for those). The typical life span of people from entering care homes is about 2 years in the UK (although for those who pay their own fees, and tend to be of higher social class, it is a year or so longer). The impact of Covid 19 on care homes is likely to be that there is a marked increase in deaths currently, but that will then work through, and the death rate will be below normal soon (because those who might otherwise have died in December will have died in April instead). Another issue will also arise for care homes, in that they may find it harder to fill places, because they will have an unusually high number of vacancies, and there may be reluctance among the elderly to enter care homes, if they are seen as high risk because of the earlier pattern of deaths.

    One way of looking at these matters is by reference to expected number of life years lost. On that basis the death of a young person can lead to (say) a loss of 70 years of expected future life, whereas that of someone in a care home means a loss of 2 years of expected life. This might sound callous, but on the other hand everyone knows how the death of a young person does seem so cruel, whereas the death of an elderly person often sparks thoughts of a long life well lived (hopefully).

    I have fairly recently lost both my parents (who died in care homes), and both were (in a sense) ready to go, my father in particular. It's not really possible to generalise about personal situations, but I am certainly glad that they are not around to experience being cut off from family in an environment of fear, in an apparent attempt to lengthen their lives, when they would have preferred to spend the inevitably brief time left to them being able to meet up with friends and family.

    My feeling is that the negative impact of lockdown measures is heavy (mental health of the young, missed screening tests, missed treatments, etc) but hard to count, and the positive impact is limited once the possibility of health services being overwhelmed is ameliorated, with lockdown then serving only to spread out the deaths rather than materially reduce them, but it is easier to measure. Hence, I think politicians are running scared of the media because they will be blamed for Covid 19 deaths and so have to be seen to be doing something, and they are less likely to be blamed for other deaths which result from the lockdown itself (because those are harder to count).
    Bravo. Intelligent comments. We live in a culture of perpetual blaming and victimhood. I'm sorry that you lost your parents but I'm one who thinks that life only has a certain value once things start falling apart. We are hearing on the nightly news headline reports about the aged dying of Coronavirus. It has certainly run cancer and heart disease right off the map.

    Living is the best antidote to the fear of dying. What were the immortal words of FDR during WW2? I certainly have a problem with the notion of a "world in crisis" when I look at documentary films about the 75th anniversary of the end of WW2 and piles of corpses of Jewish people in Buchenwald (et al) mile-high piles of hair, gold dental fillings, wallets, watches and other 'loot' from the most abominable crimes in human history. I just cannot do hysteria and 'woe is me' after seeing all that, the power of which never diminishes for me no matter how many years elapse.
    Last edited by Christabel; May-12-2020 at 12:17.

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    Quote Originally Posted by elgars ghost View Post
    Again I have to say that the UK death total is terrible, but about as all-inclusive as it can be. Some countries may not be including non-hospital deaths or deaths where Covid-19 was diagnosed but which was not necessarily the actual cause of death. The UK is factoring all of this in, which is obviously going to make the death rate look far worse than those countries who set different, less rigid, parameters. This isn't a pop at any of those who report their figures in good faith, but the fluctuation in statistical criteria from country to country means that either some nations' mortality rates are artificially low compared to the UK, or that those of the UK are artificially high. I hope I'm not premature in saying this, but the reduction in total UK deaths over the last three days (even allowing for the post-weekend time lag in reporting numbers) is cause for optimism. What does frustrate me is no information relating the amount of recoveries there have been in the UK, which means that the current cases total is a travesty because only deaths are being subtracted from it.
    Indeed, making sense of numbers is terribly difficult, when the information is emerging in the midst of a crisis and is inevitably somewhat sketchy and unreliable. National differences in reporting standards are hugely important. The UK does have wider reporting criteria than some (so pushing up the apparent death rate per capita in comparison), and Belgium captures many deaths which would not be counted as Covid 19 under other approaches, hence its high rate. Germany, on the other hand, is only counting (I believe) deaths under the Covid 19 heading following appropriate confirmation of diagnosis. No approach is necessarily wrong; it's only naive comparisons which are wrong.
    This brings me back to the media. A focus by media outlets on bad news and on blaming those who are having to manage the crisis is bound to shape political decisions in a way which is geared to managing headlines, not real world outcomes. I try not to watch the news or read newspapers because so little that they report is factual as opposed to opinion and hindsight-based attempts to criticise. It is too easy to publish a story such as "One doctor says they are short of PPE", and much more difficult to determine what the PPE position is, where any issues are (supply, distribution, faultiness, etc ????), so they publish the former. Interestingly, it is not considered news to publish a story such as "One doctor says they have plenty of PPE", whereas the negative story is regarded as news. A situation like the current one is not the time for news to be biased in the scaremongering direction, but that does seem to be what is happening in many outlets.

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    How many hates will I get if I say I dont believe in Corona?

    I think all this fear is made up by world meroeorlogical service.

    Somebody wants corona virus to look worse than it actually is.

    All this fear about corona is bu******. I dont think its something any worse than the viruses we had previous years.


    If I was the president, I would punish anybody with money who says the word corona or wears masks.

    As far as I know, Turkmenistan does something
    smilar. Well done to Turkmenistan.
    Last edited by atsizat; May-12-2020 at 13:15.

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    Sure. Tell that to the doctors and nurses.
    I treat my music like I treat my pets. It’s something to own, care about and curate with attention to detail. From a blog by hjr.

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