Thread: COVID19 vaccine announcement is promising news

Originally Posted by Christabel

Sigh. Look at the STATISTICS/DATA of the number of people who catch Covid-19 and who DIE FROM IT. You'll find the percentage/s VERY SMALL. But please don't let facts get in the way of hand-wringing. Novel means 'NEW'. We do NOT KNOW what people have or have not immunity - I mean, apart from children - especially very small children. And quite a few people who respond positively to Covid-19 testing exhibit zero symptoms whatsoever.

I won't continue to discuss this in a fact-free environment.

About 1 in 150 people who contract Covid-19 die. A much larger fraction require hospitalization. It is extremely contagious and in the absence of distancing or other strong measures it would be expected to infect more than half the population within a year. Cities in the U.S. which have had large outbreaks have had their hospital ICU's overwhelmed, and have had to order refrigerated trucks to handle morgue overflow. This has happened even in the presence of partial shutdowns and distancing measures. Covid-19 is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease and cancer, even with partial distance in effect. Without distancing and other measures epidemiological predict it would be the leading cause of death. To deny the seriousness of this outbreak is to deny facts.

Ah, so you (post #242) haven't read what I've written previously. I thought as much.

I don't need to convince you; that's the beauty of it. I'm sorry that your people are apparently dying in droves, but I would like those statistics I mentioned in a previous comment. Meanwhile, as a cancer survivor, I'm certainly not about to live my years in fear of the 'lurgie'.

Originally Posted by Baron Scarpia

About 1 in 150 people who contract Covid-19 die. A much larger fraction require hospitalization. It is extremely contagious and in the absence of distancing or other strong measures it would be expected to infect more than half the population within a year. Cities in the U.S. which have had large outbreaks have had their hospital ICU's overwhelmed, and have had to order refrigerated trucks to handle morgue overflow. This has happened even in the presence of partial shutdowns and distancing measures. Covid-19 is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease and cancer, even with partial distance in effect. Without distancing and other measures epidemiological predict it would be the leading cause of death. To deny the seriousness of this outbreak is to deny facts.

I'm not denying the seriousness of any mortal illness. I'm suggesting people who've been reckless with their health are particularly susceptible and that, to avoid catching it yourself, you need to take those additional measures to remain healthy. Americans generally are not healthy, compared to most of the developed world. I repeat, 'the opportunity cost of poor lifestyle choice is Covid-19'. That doesn't mean everybody who catches it and dies is in that category, but I'd like to know the links between co-morbidities and Covid-19 deaths. And I don't think that's unreasonable, because those statistics might be the place that provides hope. That and a vaccine - depending on its efficacy across the population and the willingness of people to vaccinate. It's a complex issue - not one warranting hysteria and fear.

You say that half the population would catch Covid-19 within a year without 'strong measures'. I'm presuming you've overlooked the fact that children are largely not affected and, indeed, it isn't known if they're even carriers. So, put more succinctly, "half the adult population" might be nearer - even then, I doubt it.

Originally Posted by Christabel

Yes, it's a 'lot' of people - but I wonder how many die per annum from strokes, cancer, heart disease, other degenerative disorders, road accidents. What I'd like to see is a chart which shows overall deaths from all causes and whether, in fact, some of those people with Covid-19 die WITH the disease rather than FROM the disease. Complexity; surplus to requirement.

In a year, in the U.S., about 600,000 die of heart disease, about 600,000 die of cancer. We are currently recording 1,500 deaths per day from Covid. That extrapolates to about 550,000 per year (if the rate were constant). It is rising sharply and some health authorities are predicting it will reach 3,000 per day. That would mean a Covid-19 death rate roughly equal to heart disease and cancer combined.

Now explain how the is not a big deal.

Originally Posted by Christabel

You say that half the population would catch Covid-19 within a year without 'strong measures'. I'm presuming you've overlooked the fact that children are largely not affected and, indeed, it isn't known if they're even carriers. So, put more succinctly, "half the adult population" might be nearer - even then, I doubt it.

The mortality rate of 1 in 150 integrates over all age groups, including children. This is established using random antibody testing. In the state of New York 33,000 deaths were recorded. Random antibody testing indicated that 14% of the population had been exposed to the disease. 14% of the population of 20 million is 2.8 million. 33,000 deaths from 2,800,000 infections, that is about 1.2%. That is somewhat below the consensus value of 0.7% mortality, suggesting infections were underestimated even with random testing. (The tests are not perfect.) Even if they have trouble sampling children, will that make a big difference? Asymptomatic infected children would invariably spread the infection through the household, so that infection rate of adults would mirror that of children.

And again, this is the outcome with strong distancing measures. The infection rate was growing exponentially until the distancing measures were imposed. If the curve had not deflected down when distancing was put in place it was on course to hit full infection in a year.

Left out completely from Christabel's usually penetrating analysis from her remote island fastness is any discussion of the increasing dysfunction of the distribution of goods and services in America among its citizens, due to decades of retrograde government. This stems from many sources, including decades of growing income and net worth inequality, racial injustice and bigotry, the growth of Ayn Randian/laissez faire economic theory married to religious fundamentalism, non-stop saturation of Talk Radio, cable, and social media with Right propaganda, and ever-rising gun ownership.

All these result in many of the co-morbidities killing so many non-rich, non-white Americans (along with an alarming rise in gun deaths from suicide). The recently-repudiated US administration was responsible for the continuation and exacerbation of these problems, then coupled those failures with the utter collapse of a coherent and effective program of public education, mask wearing, social distancing, and rigorous contact tracing and testing to contain the coronavirus pandemic. One gathers, though, from Christabel's posting that she endorses many of the factors (other than people feeding themselves better and exercising more) that promote those co-morbidities here in the USA.

Originally Posted by Christabel

Tell us, please, how we can prevent it apart from the significant health-improving measures I've already mentioned and which can be adopted without cost to the individual.

Yes, it's a 'lot' of people - but I wonder how many die per annum from strokes, cancer, heart disease, other degenerative disorders, road accidents. What I'd like to see is a chart which shows overall deaths from all causes and whether, in fact, some of those people with Covid-19 die WITH the disease rather than FROM the disease. Complexity; surplus to requirement.

Here's an interactive animated graph, although it only covers the period this year from 3/21 to 11/21. It would be interesting to see it extend back to the 1400s.

I'll try embedding it, but I'll include the URL for the website and a direct link to the chart as well.

<div class="infogram-embed" data-id="_/FvS0KctkVkiKGTlSuUVg" data-type="interactive" data-title="HTV ND COVID-19 vs. COD"></div><script>!function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("scrip t")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src ="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document, 0,"infogram-async");</script>

https://www.wmur.com/article/coronav...ates/32380058#

https://infogram.com/1p6klxed3qzgrjb...xrpvpb3nmvvlw3

Obviously there was a time, like 200 years ago when Cancer wasn't such a big killer. That's because people didn't generally live long enough for that to kill them. They were far more likely to die from an infection, bacterial or viral.

Originally Posted by NoCoPilot

Masks. Social distancing. Quarantining when necessary. I assume you've seen the flyers.

The Anti-Mask League of 1919: The Cultural Battle of an Enduring Pandemic

On the morning of January 25th, 1919, an advertisement ran in The San Fransisco Chronicle promoting an “anti-mask meeting” at the Dreamland Roller Rink later that night. The admission free meeting had the self-proclaimed intent of protesting “against the unhealthy mask ordinance” that required citizens of San Francisco to wear masks in an effort to combat the influenza pandemic (also known as the Spanish Flu). It was but one example of the larger cultural dispute that swept throughout the United States as the health crisis continued into its second year. With this in mind, the story of the anti-mask league is insightful as the U.S (New York included) navigates the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting how public opinion about a city’s policies can change over the course of a health crisis. . . .

The rest of the article: https://untappedcities.com/2020/07/1...ring-pandemic/

Anti_Mask_AD_SF_Untapped.jpg

Spanish-Flu-Traffic-Cop-Wearing-Mask-in-NYC-Spanish-Flu-1918.jpg