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Thread: COVID19 vaccine announcement is promising news

  1. #436
    Senior Member NoCoPilot's Avatar
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    Wha? What benefit is quarantining to the government?

  2. #437
    Senior Member adriesba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christabel View Post
    It's no good; you need your fear and hysteria to justify the government's right to keep you under house arrest. They do this instead of the more effective contact tracing. Just keep everybody at home - never mind the suicides and other mental health issues. Old people are dying!! What's the world coming to?
    So covid is only worth worrying about if young people are dying?

    Also, contact tracing cannot be our only method of fighting covid because many people who get it have little to no symptoms. There's not a good way to trace these cases.
    Last edited by adriesba; Dec-03-2020 at 02:45.
    "Pop music is for the body, but opera is for the soul." — Angela Gheorghiu

    "I've always tried to remember what my mother used to tell me: stay close to the earth. Then when you fall down, it won't hurt so much." — Birgit Nilsson

  3. #438
    Senior Member NoCoPilot's Avatar
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    Don't get distracted by secondary or tertiary arguments --

    I want the CENTRAL THRUST of Christabel's argument explained to me. Pretend I'm a 5-year old, and you must make me understand WHY the government wants me to STAY AT HOME, TO QUARANTINE, TO NOT GO OUT IN PUBLIC. Make it very simple so I can understand.

    Why is the government telling people this?
    Last edited by NoCoPilot; Dec-03-2020 at 02:54.

  4. #439
    Senior Member Strange Magic's Avatar
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    Christabel, make plans to come immediately to the USA and join the ranks of our native mask-fighters, contact tracing opponents and foot-draggers, big government conspiracy freaks, George Soros and Bill Gates conspiracy freaks, weird cure nutjobs, healthcare system shatterers, and mix-and-mingle enthusiasts. I think the "disease" we've been suffering from here for four years has spread across the Pacific.

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  6. #440
    Senior Member Baron Scarpia's Avatar
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    Here's my back-of-an-envelope epidemiological calculation. People who die from covid usually succumb 3-4 weeks after diagnosis. So the number of deaths per day reflects the number of diagnoses per day from a month prior. Today we have about 2,500 deaths per day and a month ago we had about 60,000 cases diagnosed per day. Today we have about 200,000 cases diagnosed per day. That's about a factor of 3 increase. So a month from now we can expect three times as many deaths per day. 7,500 deaths per day by the January 1, 2021.

    Let's hope the vaccine can be distributed quickly and that it works.
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  7. #441
    Senior Member pianozach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baron Scarpia View Post
    Here's my back-of-an-envelope epidemiological calculation. People who die from covid usually succumb 3-4 weeks after diagnosis. So the number of deaths per day reflects the number of diagnoses per day from a month prior. Today we have about 2,500 deaths per day and a month ago we had about 60,000 cases diagnosed per day. Today we have about 200,000 cases diagnosed per day. That's about a factor of 3 increase. So a month from now we can expect three times as many deaths per day. 7,500 deaths per day by the January 1, 2021.

    Let's hope the vaccine can be distributed quickly and that it works.
    Saw a news report yesterday that gave a potential priority list and timeline for rolling out the vaccine.

    PHASE 1a
    High risk workers in health care facilities
    First responders

    PHASE 1B
    People of all ages with comorbid and underlying conditions that put them at significantly higher risk
    Older adults living congregate or overcrowded settings

    PHASE 2
    Critical risk workers
    Teachers and school staff
    People in homeless shelters
    Detainees and staff in jails, detention centers

    PHASE 3
    Young adults
    Children
    "Essential" workers

    PHASE 4
    Leftovers

    Phase 4 vaccinations probably wouldn't happen until April.

    There are OTHER proposed rollout scenarios as well
    Last edited by pianozach; Dec-03-2020 at 17:33.

  8. #442
    Senior Member adriesba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pianozach View Post
    Saw a news report yesterday that gave a potential priority list and timeline for rolling out the vaccine.

    PHASE 1a
    High risk workers in health care facilities
    First responders

    PHASE 1B
    People of all ages with comorbid and underlying conditions that put them at significantly higher risk
    Older adults living congregate or overcrowded settings

    PHASE 2
    Critical risk workers
    Teachers and school staff
    People in homeless shelters
    Detainees and staff in jails, detention centers

    PHASE 3
    Young adults
    Children
    "Essential" workers

    PHASE 4
    Leftovers

    Phase 4 vaccinations probably wouldn't happen until April.

    There are OTHER proposed rollout scenarios as well
    What is the reasoning for putting young adults in phase 3 instead of 4?
    "Pop music is for the body, but opera is for the soul." — Angela Gheorghiu

    "I've always tried to remember what my mother used to tell me: stay close to the earth. Then when you fall down, it won't hurt so much." — Birgit Nilsson

  9. #443
    Senior Member Open Book's Avatar
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    And what about older adults who don't live in a communal setting? They are not even mentioned so they must be leftovers, below young adults. Is this because they are presumed retired and able to shelter at home? That's quite a sweeping assumption.
    Last edited by Open Book; Dec-03-2020 at 17:43.
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  10. #444
    Senior Member NoCoPilot's Avatar
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    Open Book wrote:

    "And what about older adults who don't live in a communal setting? They are not even mentioned so they must be leftovers, below young adults. Is this because they are presumed retired and able to shelter at home? That's quite a sweeping assumption."

    Well, speaking as a representative of a group of one, I'm retired. I mostly stay at home. When I venture out for groceries or other necessities I always take proper precautions. I'll happily assign myself to Phase 4 so other, more-at-risk individuals can get their vaccine.

    Two points:
    1. Is "phase 4" anything like "group W bench" from Alice's Restaurant?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0a6iWHSWbA

    2. It won't be April. It probably won't even be 2021. I'm guessing midyear 2022 to get the majority of people vaccinated, even *IF* you figure in all the science-zeros who opt out.
    Last edited by NoCoPilot; Dec-03-2020 at 17:57.

  11. #445
    Senior Member pianozach's Avatar
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    ..........
    ..........
    ..........
    Last edited by pianozach; Dec-04-2020 at 02:15.

  12. #446
    Senior Member pianozach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by adriesba View Post
    What is the reasoning for putting young adults in phase 3 instead of 4?
    Very likely the age demographics of cases and deaths. Children seem to be less likely to become a case OR a death.

    I imagine that the final version of the US rollout will be a variation of this list.

    The UK already has their own rollout list:

    The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) in the U.K. set out on Wednesday who it believes should received the vaccine first, noting that “the first priorities for any Covid-19 vaccination programme should be the prevention of COVID-19 mortality and the protection of health and social care staff and systems.”

    The priority list is as follows:

    • Residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
    • Those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
    • Those 75 years of age and over
    • Those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals
    • Those 65 years of age and over
    • Individuals aged 16 years to 64 years with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality
    • Those 60 years of age and over
    • Those 55 years of age and over
    • Those 50 years of age and over

  13. #447
    Senior Member Open Book's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoCoPilot View Post
    Open Book wrote:

    "And what about older adults who don't live in a communal setting? They are not even mentioned so they must be leftovers, below young adults. Is this because they are presumed retired and able to shelter at home? That's quite a sweeping assumption."

    Well, speaking as a representative of a group of one, I'm retired. I mostly stay at home. When I venture out for groceries or other necessities I always take proper precautions. I'll happily assign myself to Phase 4 so other, more-at-risk individuals can get their vaccine.

    Two points:
    1. Is "phase 4" anything like "group W bench" from Alice's Restaurant?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0a6iWHSWbA

    2. It won't be April. It probably won't even be 2021. I'm guessing midyear 2022 to get the majority of people vaccinated, even *IF* you figure in all the science-zeros who opt out.
    Not everybody in their 60's and above has the luxury of retirement. Some still have to work, often among other people. Most of these jobs would probably be classified as essential, but maybe some jobs will fall through the cracks.

    And what about people in their 50's? They have some risk, too. No matter how you apportion it, you're going to displease someone, of course.

    Why do you think it will take so long to vaccinate everybody?
    "No one chooses the tuba" - Alexander von Puttkamer

  14. #448
    Senior Member pianozach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Open Book View Post

    Why do you think it will take so long to vaccinate everybody?
    Well, in the USA, we have a population of 331 million people spread out over 3.797 million mi².

    If you vaccinated one person per second, it would take 11.5 days to vaccinate just one million people. At that rate it would take 3800 days (or 10 and a half years) to vaccinate all 331 million people.

    And I believe that some of those vaccines have to been given in TWO doses at different times. So . . . one vaccination per second works out to 21 years.

    You work out the logistics.
    Last edited by pianozach; Dec-03-2020 at 18:29.

  15. #449
    Senior Member Baron Scarpia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pianozach View Post
    Well, in the USA, we have a population of 331 million people spread out over 3.797 million mi².

    If you vaccinated one person per second, it would take 11.5 days to vaccinate just one million people. At that rate it would take 3800 days (or 10 and a half years) to vaccinate all 331 million people.

    And I believe that some of those vaccines have to been given in TWO doses at different times. So . . . one vaccination per second works out to 21 years.

    You work out the logistics.
    I don't know what a vaccination every second has to do with anything. Every year about 50% of the population in the U.S. gets a flu shot. The flu shots are given in the fall, over a four month period. It is possible to vaccinate the entire U.S. population over a year, as long as they get the manufacturing of the vaccines worked out, as well as the logistics of distributing a vaccine that has much more stringent storage requirements. It's doable, but there are numerous links in the chain that have to hold.
    There are two kinds of music, good music and the other kind. - Duke Ellington.

  16. #450
    Senior Member Open Book's Avatar
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    Presumably we have more than one nurse giving the vaccine. OK, that's flippant, a nurse can only do so many shots in a day.

    We manage to vaccinate millions of people for the flu each year, in just a few months usually, since it's a fall/winter thing. Google says the manufacturers expect to make about 200 million doses of flu vaccine. Presumably they expect to use it up.
    Last edited by Open Book; Dec-03-2020 at 19:04.
    "No one chooses the tuba" - Alexander von Puttkamer

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