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Thanks, that helps me a lot. I like to know what might go wrong. Funny thing, I don't mind paying as much when I know in advance what likely will fail.

I asked when I last had the contractor over, how much would it be to fix one of my units. He said if it was the compressor, $1400 plus labor. I'm thinking that other problems are mostly just the labor, inexpensive capacitors etc.. Motors would be more.
One sign that a compressor is about to have problems is the rise in amperage it needs to start and keep running. Our old one was drawing 30 amps on startup and a continuous 18 amps while running ... normal units should be around 4 or 6 amps when running.

When we initially bought our current house that we now live in we had to have major repairs done to the A/C - Gas furnace equipment. The previous owners seldom, if ever, changed the air filter on the A/C - Furnace intake. They had also installed the unit that sits on top of the furnace upside down because it was the only way it would fit ... and they had to cut it all apart to do that so all corners had duct tape on them ... and the flue to the roof was also not connected. It's a wonder the whole house didn't catch on fire during their occupancy.

We spent about $2,750 on those repairs and a few years later had to replace the outside condenser unit ... We opted to upgrade to the [then] latest "sear" rating and had a 5 ton unit installed. When our company comes to inspect they check out the refrigerant level and the total operation of the condenser, evaporator and even the furnace so that it will be ready for use during the winter.
 

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One sign that a compressor is about to have problems is the rise in amperage it needs to start and keep running. Our old one was drawing 30 amps on startup and a continuous 18 amps while running ... normal units should be around 4 or 6 amps when running.

When we initially bought our current house that we now live in we had to have major repairs done to the A/C - Gas furnace equipment. The previous owners seldom, if ever, changed the air filter on the A/C - Furnace intake. They had also installed the unit that sits on top of the furnace upside down because it was the only way it would fit ... and they had to cut it all apart to do that so all corners had duct tape on them ... and the flue to the roof was also not connected. It's a wonder the whole house didn't catch on fire during their occupancy.

We spent about $2,750 on those repairs and a few years later had to replace the outside condenser unit ... We opted to upgrade to the [then] latest "sear" rating and had a 5 ton unit installed. When our company comes to inspect they check out the refrigerant level and the total operation of the condenser, evaporator and even the furnace so that it will be ready for use during the winter.
Thanks. Mine has started recently to make more blowing air noise, rumbling and now a slight rattling noise (I can't find anything loose). So it seems to be pulling more amps? That's good to check out, thanks.

Only 2 more months of torrid temperatures here at 4000ft (4.4F per 1000 ft is the lapse rate).

According to the models, water temperatures won't be warm enough until at least mid August for hurricanes to develop. Depressions (off the coast of Africa and the Caribbean convective activity) are forming in the expected source regions and then dissipating within a few days. But a hurricane will form west of Mexico and move west.
 

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Thanks, that helps me a lot. I like to know what might go wrong. Funny thing, I don't mind paying as much when I know in advance what likely will fail.

I asked when I last had the contractor over, how much would it be to fix one of my units. He said if it was the compressor, $1400 plus labor. I'm thinking that other problems are mostly just the labor, inexpensive capacitors etc.. Motors would be more.
Replacing the compressor is the most difficult and time consuming of all jobs for an a/c tech. It requires discharging the refrigerant, desoldering the refrigerant lines connected to the compressor, re-soldering the lines to the new compressor, using a vacuum pump to evacuate the air from all refrigerant lines, and recharging the refrigerant. The refrigerant alone could end up costing as much as the new compressor. It would end up being an all day job if all goes well.

Consider yourself lucky the compressor can be replaced at all. R12 refrigerant is no longer available. Old units not using R134a must be completely replaced. And with ongoing supply chain issues, you'd have no choice but to buy more tons than your house needs. That's been the case with some of my neighbors. Having to buy a 3 or 4 ton unit for an 800 square foot townhouse, when 2 tons would be more appropriate.
 

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Replacing the compressor is the most difficult and time consuming of all jobs for an a/c tech. It requires discharging the refrigerant, desoldering the refrigerant lines connected to the compressor, re-soldering the lines to the new compressor, using a vacuum pump to evacuate the air from all refrigerant lines, and recharging the refrigerant. The refrigerant alone could end up costing as much as the new compressor. It would end up being an all day job if all goes well.

Consider yourself lucky the compressor can be replaced at all. R12 refrigerant is no longer available. Old units not using R134a must be completely replaced. And with ongoing supply chain issues, you'd have no choice but to buy more tons than your house needs. That's been the case with some of my neighbors. Having to buy a 3 or 4 ton unit for an 800 square foot townhouse, when 2 tons would be more appropriate.
Thanks, now I have some important questions for my AC guy, before the issues start. He's knowledgeable and fair-minded.

That hurricane from Mexico is now expected to be wide enough to add to the monsoonal moisture in Arizona. Expected to form on the July 29th. It will reach 800 miles off the coast of S. California by the 6th, and it will dissipate there.
It’s all very tentative right now. We’ll see how well the various models do with this one. The modelers have more experience with Atlantic hurricanes.
For many subtle and difficult to pin down reasons (wind shear and convergent zone differences), hurricanes form in the warm convective conditions west of Panama earlier than they begin forming in the Atlantic.
 

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fair summer day here in south-central Pennsylvania. Its maybe 83F, cloudy, kinda humid but not ghastly at all, and it will probably rain here and there this evening

all in all a rather mild day for July 27...and most importantly, the corn is looking pretty good around here
 

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So if positive vorticity causes cloudiness, do constant blue skies result from negative vorticity? Sincerely I hope you get some relief in the form of dihydrogen monoxide (H20).

Blue Skies was my Dad's favorite song. I played it at his funeral.
Yes, Irving was such a special homespun genius (as I've gotten older I appreciate his songs more and more).

Yes, negative vorticity advection (NVA) will allow clouds to dissipate very predictively.

Right now I can't think of a clearing situation that doesn't involve NVA (extra tropical).

I can't understand why vorticity isn't taught in grade school. It is simple enough and it is so helpful for the understanding.
 

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A disappointing September here in central NY with cooler than normal temps and too much rain.
 

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A disappointing September here in central NY with cooler than normal temps and too much rain.
I was reading the forecast discussion for your area and they mention how lake-effect rain is triggered by a slight shift in the flow (to be more in line with the rotational vector at your latitude). With the instability of the favorable temperature contrast across the Lakes right now. Sounds like these conditions have persisted for the month, I haven't watched it.

The weather down here has seemed cooler than 'normal' too. Yours is a normal cool pattern, but I think AGW is new cooling for us, because it builds the high pressure, and it speeds up the flow so that the heat lows are disrupted. This is cooling that humans talk about, it's not much actual cooling to all the layers, because the heat moves up and down and around in the complicated interactions. It was unbearable heat in the South after we cooled down here (in June) in the SouthWest. We were cool, they were hot, but it's not as simple as that sounds..
 

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The cold season has finally arrived across the States (the sun is well south of the equator allowing the waves generated by rotation to dip down on us). We're under a large cold wave which moves along at about 40 kph and so it should be replaced with a warm wave in that many days (how many days to cross 3/4 of the continent at 40 kph?). Which means a warmer December than average when it gets into position, and if it can remain strong. The models say the middle of December mild, then cold again.

As humans, we have a natural sense (intelligence) about winter patterns. It's ingrained. We 'know' that weather comes in waves, but we don't know why, or when (i.e. where we are in the repeating pattern).
 

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It's -0.3°C here and will be even colder overnight. I have no heating on. On Tuesday I purchased 'thermal jogging pants'. Whilst I wouldn't wear these in public, they are in fact very effective and hold in much heat. I do also have two thin merino wool jumpers on. None of it feels bulky.

Obviously it's not 'ideal', but it's okay. When I was watching the news on the computer I had my hands in the front pocket of a 'hoodie' and everything is pretty much warm. No heating energy being used. Other people in the house aren't finding it quite as satisfactory as I do. When it hits 5 below I might also start to panic.

Today though was sunny and quite bright.
 

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It's -0.3°C here and will be even colder overnight. I have no heating on. On Tuesday I purchased 'thermal jogging pants'. Whilst I wouldn't wear these in public, they are in fact very effective and hold in much heat. I do also have two thin merino wool jumpers on. None of it feels bulky.

Obviously it's not 'ideal', but it's okay. When I was watching the news on the computer I had my hands in the front pocket of a 'hoodie' and everything is pretty much warm. No heating energy being used. Other people in the house aren't finding it quite as satisfactory as I do. When it hits 5 below I might also start to panic.

Today though was sunny and quite bright.
Shouldn’t we have warmer winters with the planet warming a few degrees per century? I don't think so.
 

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this morning was 19F. Probably the coldest night since last February. Here in southern Pennsylvania, it been unusually warm overnight this fall. The leaves stayed green and on the trees later then usual, and my rose bushes actually bloomed again in November. I even saw turtles out sunning themselves on a log just a few days ago

There were still lily pads on my lake yesterday, but this morning they are frozen into the ice. I've never seen that before, and I've lived at this spot for over 20 years now

I sure hope they sink soon. If they are still around to get frozen into the ice in January its going to screw up the ice for hockey
 

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Shouldn’t we have warmer winters with the planet warming a few degrees per century? I don't think so.
In general I'd say they are warmer. The last solidly cold winter I experienced was in 2010, when it snowed in that 'winter wonderland' style which lingers for weeks. Since then it's been less severe and takes a while to get really cold. Yesterday here it was around 10-12°C in the daytime, which is almost unprecedented for December in northern Europe. And yet today? 2°C. o_O It's this wide variability which is most characteristic now. Last Christmas was the warmest I've ever known in my lifetime.
 

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its funny how the weather works. Out west where my mom and dad are they have had a blizzard already and its been winter for real. For us, alot of the tropical systems worked their way up the coast and brought all the warm, wet air with them.

Its funny how the trees know when to keep thier leaves and when to drop them. I used to think it all went by daylight, but this year the trees kept their leaves green late. Very late.

we're about due for a hard winter, though. I sorta hope we go into the deep freeze this year. I got my skates sharpened and replaced the net in my hockey goal
 

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its funny how the weather works. Out west where my mom and dad are they have had a blizzard already and its been winter for real. For us, alot of the tropical systems worked their way up the coast and brought all the warm, wet air with them.

Its funny how the trees know when to keep thier leaves and when to drop them. I used to think it all went by daylight, but this year the trees kept their leaves green late. Very late.

we're about due for a hard winter, though. I sorta hope we go into the deep freeze this year. I got my skates sharpened and replaced the net in my hockey goal
We still have leaves on our trees this far south (Mexican border). Nutrients in leaves need to be re-absorbed before fluids in the trees slow down and stop due to low temperatures. Length of day and light levels also play a part, besides freezing. Since it's complicated each species is slightly different, I assume.

The first signs of AGW shocked us down here after the winter of 2011. February of 2011 brought record-breaking cold, killing 50 year old palm trees. Ever since, the warming has shifted the huge planetary waves about 100 miles to the east sparing us the cold of the dreaded Alberta Clipper. There seems to be no going back.. it's been that many years. I expect that we'll be hit again, maybe once a decade, because of the increasing energy available for such shifts. No surprises so far this season.
 

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The fast moving cold front just hit us like a punch in the gut! Temps will be dropping from 45 degrees F. to about 9 degrees over night. Winds are whipping around at 40ph.
 
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