[Luchesi]

The fast moving cold front just hit us like a punch in the gut! Temps will be dropping from 45 degrees F. to about 9 degrees over night. Winds are whipping around at 40ph.

Brutal. Stay safe.
One of the questions about AGW is what will future winters have in store for us. The polar night currently reaches -50 or -60 annually (by late January). A few degrees warmer up there (both poles) and warmer temperatures than now in the south? Not much relief, unless I'm missing some important change in the unstoppable winter sequence. More water vapor in the air than now?

But, otherwise, i think about how much energy 2°C planetwide adds to the planet's large-scale waves and individual weather systems. Quickly changing regional climates, whipsawing them back and forth. It's hard to imagine.

 

[starthrower]

Fortunately, the heavy winds didn't last. The weather system is moving so fast that things have settled down. We now have some lighter gusts and a bit of blustery snow. Should be all over with by morning.

 

[starthrower]

It's a tragedy to see what's happening down the road in Buffalo, NY. Several dozen people dead but the city leadership was ill prepared to deal with the storm which shouldn't happen in an area known for severe weather.

 

[Luchesi]

It's a tragedy to see what's happening down the road in Buffalo, NY. Several dozen people dead but the city leadership was ill prepared to deal with the storm which shouldn't happen in an area known for severe weather.

I have the feeling that it's going to get very cold for you and Toronto by the middle of January.

Well, it's not a feeling, it's the way the waves are setting up.

 

[starthrower]

I have the feeling that it's going to get very cold for you and Toronto by the middle of January.

Well, it's not a feeling, it's the way the waves are setting up.

It's supposed to be cold in January in NY, and Canada. It's the dead of winter up north. 60 degrees the past two days is not normal.

 

[Luchesi]

It's supposed to be cold in January in NY, and Canada. It's the dead of winter up north. 60 degrees the past two days is not normal.

By the 6th of January a weak ridge will hold sway over the Conus, but by the next week two large planetary waves will speed across and replace it. These will release the flood gates of arctic air (and pull it all down on you), which has been cooling in the dark for months.

 

[Chat Noir]

This is perhaps the warmest Christmas period I've ever experienced. Last night (and evening) there was a warm wind blowing and after the rain dried up by 4pm people were sitting outside having a drink. Without coat, scarf etc. It's unreal. Not exactly an Australian-style Christmas, but far from the Christmases I, and most of us, grew up with.

 

[starthrower]

By the 6th of January a weak ridge will hold sway over the Conus, but by the next week two large planetary waves will speed across and replace it. These will release the flood gates of arctic air (and pull it all down on you), which has been cooling in the dark for months.

Not according to the weather forecast I'm reading. It calls for fairly mild temperatures over the next ten days. 35-40 degrees F.

 

[Luchesi]

This is perhaps the warmest Christmas period I've ever experienced. Last night (and evening) there was a warm wind blowing and after the rain dried up by 4pm people were sitting outside having a drink. Without coat, scarf etc. It's unreal. Not exactly an Australian-style Christmas, but far from the Christmases I, and most of us, grew up with.

There were unlikely coincidences which resulted in a strong southerly flow from the Atlantic SW of Spain. Interesting. It's moving at 50 kph so it won't last long. A few days total.

 

[Luchesi]

Not according to the weather forecast I'm reading. It calls for fairly mild temperatures over the next ten days. 35-40 degrees F.

It will clobber you on Thursday the 12th.

This early in the polar vortex season the models need to be tweaked, but if this scenario doesn't pan out then there's a big problem with the data north of the polar jet. 'Unlikely after all these years of good results..

 

[starthrower]

It will clobber you on Thursday the 12th.

No worries. I've lived here all my life and the past six years are nothing compared to the brutal winters of the 60s thru the early 2000s.

 

[Luchesi]

No worries. I've lived here all my life and the past six years are nothing compared to the brutal winters of the 60s thru the early 2000s.

I grew up in Westchester. I remember 3 or 4 winters in which we could build snow forts. lol 'Nothing compared to northern NY.
How do you protect from your pipes from freezing? They're deep in the ground?

google - Antifreeze in heating systems can help to reduce the potential of frozen or cracked pipes.

 

[Chat Noir]

There were unlikely coincidences which resulted in a strong southerly flow from the Atlantic SW of Spain. Interesting. It's moving at 50 kph so it won't last long. A few days total.

This is correct, yet the weather forecast long-term is still for rainy weather with above zero temperatures. Up to 80% chance of long-term rain, which is a nuisance. Still low wind expectations and the chance of frost-type temperatures through January is put at 5%!

 

[starthrower]

I grew up in Westchester. I remember 3 or 4 winters in which we could build snow forts. lol 'Nothing compared to northern NY.
How do you protect from your pipes from freezing? They're deep in the ground?

google - Antifreeze in heating systems can help to reduce the potential of frozen or cracked pipes.

Pipes are all buried at least four feet deep. My main water pipe coming into the house from the street burst about ten years ago in the middle of January. My front yard turned into a pond. Luckily some people I know put me in touch with a plumber who does big jobs like repairing underground pipes. He came with his backhoe and drilling machine and replaced the ancient galvanized pipe with copper. It improved my water pressure too.

 

[Luchesi]

This is correct, yet the weather forecast long-term is still for rainy weather with above zero temperatures. Up to 80% chance of long-term rain, which is a nuisance. Still low wind expectations and the chance of frost-type temperatures through January is put at 5%!

Interesting. Yes. after the warm flow switches from southwest to more northwesterly the cooler air will return. It's the same trough of low pressure. And the air parcels under it with still spin in harmony with the planet's counterclockwise rotation, so the excess energy will lift the H2O and precipitate on you. Light to moderate at times. Normal breeziness.

 

[Chat Noir]

It's only 6th of Jan and as we know the weather does what it wants, but right now the wind calmed down as of yesterday and it has been sunny most of the day and 11°C. A mild January has occurred many times though I don't really remember it ever being in double figures, but I've not looked at the records. Usually the pain comes at the end of January with 'freak snowfall' in February. Like last year when it froze some of my plants after lots of rainfall had waterlogged everything.
However... as has been observed for the last few years there are things budding in January which really never did before. Some trees and plants.

 

[Nate Miller]

it has been warm for January here in southern Pennsylvania. The week of Christmas was the coldest week I can remember for 4 or 5 years. I burned more wood (I heat with a wood burning stove) that week than I had the whole of November and December. Now its been above freezing at night even for 6 days. I built a fire but didn't light it so that if I got chilly, I could just set a match to it. That was 6 days ago, but I'm sure I'll be lighting it off tonight.

I think we are in for a mild January after that blast of artic air over Christmas. But mild winter months dont mean anything, that's how winter goes. I've seen enough of them now that I can enjoy some mild weather when we're lucky enough to get it

 

[Luchesi]

it has been warm for January here in southern Pennsylvania. The week of Christmas was the coldest week I can remember for 4 or 5 years. I burned more wood (I heat with a wood burning stove) that week than I had the whole of November and December. Now its been above freezing at night even for 6 days. I built a fire but didn't light it so that if I got chilly, I could just set a match to it. That was 6 days ago, but I'm sure I'll be lighting it off tonight.

I think we are in for a mild January after that blast of artic air over Christmas. But mild winter months dont mean anything, that's how winter goes. I've seen enough of them now that I can enjoy some mild weather when we're lucky enough to get it

You'll get a terrible blast on the 11th and the 21st.

 

[Luchesi]

The coldest week of this year so far will begin next Friday (for most of the US). I hope it misses me.

 

[Chat Noir]

As I predicted above the 'freak snowfall' occurred at the end of January. Sometimes it is the start of February, and actually may extend into it. What is there now is three-day old snowfall which is maintained by the temperature. More will likely fall over the next few weeks, but inbetween we keep seeing bursts of sunshine and the clear-sky, but very cold sort of weather you also get at this time of year. The latter of which I prefer over the days where it just drizzles all day.