[Luchesi]

As I predicted above the 'freak snowfall' occurred at the end of January. Sometimes it is the start of February, and actually may extend into it. What is there now is three-day old snowfall which is maintained by the temperature. More will likely fall over the next few weeks, but inbetween we keep seeing bursts of sunshine and the clear-sky, but very cold sort of weather you also get at this time of year. The latter of which I prefer over the days where it just drizzles all day.

You predicted it using your experience and intuition? It reminds me of how confusing that unceasing parade of weather would be to primitive people, trying to figure it out for better predicting (and survival).
Looking back at the history of British maritime industry forecasting in the 1800s, those scientists would be amazed at how weather works (they didn't know (but they had very few reliable clues)). And amazed at what meteorologists have now. A machine-generated 16 day forecast for any point on the planet, surface to 12,000 meters, updated a few times a day.

 

[Chat Noir]

You predicted it using your experience and intuition? It reminds me of how confusing that unceasing parade of weather would be to primitive people, trying to figure it out for better predicting (and survival).
Looking back at the history of British maritime industry forecasting in the 1800s, those scientists would be amazed at how weather works (they didn't know (but they had very few reliable clues)). And amazed at what meteorologists have now. A machine-generated 16 day forecast for any point on the planet, surface to 12,000 meters, updated a few times a day.

I'm always caught on the hop now, but generally I can tell how the weather is going to go. I'm from the backwoods and clues about how the weather is going have always been important to farming areas. In some ways the weather according to the broad picture isn't greatly changed, even though trends have shifted. January has been like this for a while now with the snow arriving around the last week or the first week of February. Rain is easy to predict around the day and it baffles me, especially in city areas, how people can't see it. And of course you have the old 'red sky at night/morning...' as an accurate prediction f what is to come.

Accurate 16-day forecasts though? Not really with this method. However, I follow the meteorological forecasts and even they are foiled daily. I look at the forecast and then look outside and sometimes say to myself: 'no, that's not going to happen'.

 

[Luchesi]

I'm always caught on the hop now, but generally I can tell how the weather is going to go. I'm from the backwoods and clues about how the weather is going have always been important to farming areas. In some ways the weather according to the broad picture isn't greatly changed, even though trends have shifted. January has been like this for a while now with the snow arriving around the last week or the first week of February. Rain is easy to predict around the day and it baffles me, especially in city areas, how people can't see it. And of course you have the old 'red sky at night/morning...' as an accurate prediction f what is to come.

Accurate 16-day forecasts though? Not really with this method. However, I follow the meteorological forecasts and even they are foiled daily. I look at the forecast and then look outside and sometimes say to myself: 'no, that's not going to happen'.

'Interesting post.
Weather forecasting (by humans) is like astrology. They share negative aspects (human foibles).
The human brain says, all these patterns, I should be able to make predictions out of them. After decades and decades the sequences become recognizable to some degree?

What are the mechanisms? Well, we'll just go by what it looks like.

Oh and it will be easy to forget the failed predictions.

The red sky at sunset saying - is helpful at your location, because your weather patterns are the same as if you were sailing in the temperate regions.

 

[Chat Noir]

Weather forecasting (by humans) is like astrology.

I don't think this is correct. The national meteorological office here fails to predict the weather for a fair percentage, which they acknowledge to be an understandable result of rapidly changing phenomena and data. I too am working on data and also habitual sense perceptions and I get it right; the big difference being time scale. When they say it's going to rain and I say it's going to rain (within a hour time scale), it's not because my 'voodoo' has coincidentally aligned with their science. It's because the same phenomena produce the same visible conditions.

 

[Luchesi]

I don't think this is correct. The national meteorological office here fails to predict the weather for a fair percentage, which they acknowledge to be an understandable result of rapidly changing phenomena and data. I too am working on data and also habitual sense perceptions and I get it right; the big difference being time scale. When they say it's going to rain and I say it's going to rain (within a hour time scale), it's not because my 'voodoo' has coincidentally aligned with their science. It's because the same phenomena produce the same visible conditions.

Farmers here do it that way for tornadoes.
Rain forecasts are slightly more accurate here than in Europe, because it's less complicated.

You currently have a huge low pressure centered in the Med to your south (fading to the east by the 27th) and an impressive higher energy low to your north. I'm glad I'm not forecasting in Europe anymore. It's always complicated.

And if I'm understanding why "The national meteorological office here fails to predict...", it will NOT get noticeably better in the future (not with faster machines, a finer data grid, more personnel, more expertise). The forecasters there are probably looking at the best it will be. Isn't that odd for a science that's quite well understood now, but that's what they tell me.

 

[starthrower]

Anybody else feeling the deep freeze? It's going down to minus 5 F. tonight. Today is one of those bitterly cold, blustery days when you don't want to leave the house.

 

[Luchesi]

Anybody else feeling the deep freeze? It's going down to minus 5 F. tonight. Today is one of those bitterly cold, blustery days when you don't want to leave the house.

Warm here, I covered my car wearing shorts.

We have to cover our cars here because the kangaroo rats chew off the insulation. 'Cost me over $8000 (2 incidents) last year. I learned my lesson. Insurance paid some of it.

The little guys hide in the cars from the foxes, coyotes and bobcats here, and apparently there’s not much else they like for their teeth in the desert here.

 

[Roger Knox]

Anybody else feeling the deep freeze? It's going down to minus 5 F. tonight. Today is one of those bitterly cold, blustery days when you don't want to leave the house.

Here in Toronto it's going down to -21 C. tonight. That's about the same temperature as yours, and I'm staying in. Hope we don't get storms.

 

[eljr]

Going down to -5 F tonight. Air temperature.
I hate the wind chill figures they use to sensationalize weather..
No big deal as long as the wind does not know out power.

 

[Phil loves classical]

I had to turn my thermostat down. My furnace is overcompensating for the cold and it feels too warm in my house. I'm dreading to see my gas bill next month.

 

[eljr]

I had to turn my thermostat down. My furnace is overcompensating for the cold and it feels too warm in my house. I'm dreading to see my gas bill next month.

Last month, my heating bill was $1,250.

850 oil, 400 electric. My addition is electric heated.

 

[Phil loves classical]

Last month, my heating bill was $1,250.

850 oil, 400 electric. My addition is electric heated.

Is that for one house only? Where you live, like Alaska?

 

[eljr]

Is that for one house only? Where you live, like Alaska?

Farmhouse 45 miles north of Manhattan.
Not very big. A little over 2,000 Square feet.
That is roughly double what it cost last year. Home heating oil is unregulated so this is what you get.

 

[Luchesi]

Farmhouse 45 miles north of Manhattan.
Not very big. A little over 2,000 Square feet.
That is roughly double what it cost last year. Home heating oil is unregulated so this is what you get.

Heh. Were you at Woodstock?

 

[Luchesi]

There's a strong storm being brewed up for the 23rd for the UK, if the models are correct. Spring comes in like a lion!

 

[Malx]

There's a strong storm being brewed up for the 23rd for the UK, if the models are correct. Spring comes in like a lion!

The whole of the UK or worse in any particular area, North, South? Or at this early juncture am I being overly hopeful of that much detail!

 

[Luchesi]

The whole of the UK or worse in any particular area, North, South? Or at this early juncture am I being overly hopeful of that much detail!

There's a new run every six hours, now it looks like it's having its intensity drained into four storms. The last of the four still looks the strongest for heavy rain for the UK, North. Quite a rainy pattern, but I don't know how to compare this to a normal rainy spring over there.

 

[Malx]

^ Wind and rain in Scotland around this time of year is not unusual but its the strength of the wind that can be most damaging. I'll keep a look out for local forecasts but there nothing we can do to change whats heading our way!
Interestingly the south of the UK is having some snow at present as a front is hitting the cold air thats currently sitting on us, areas of the South of England grind to a halt when they get a couple of inches of snow, always makes me chuckle that amount would hardly merit a mention here.

 

[Luchesi]

^ Wind and rain in Scotland around this time of year is not unusual but its the strength of the wind that can be most damaging. I'll keep a look out for local forecasts but there nothing we can do to change whats heading our way!
Interestingly the south of the UK is having some snow at present as a front is hitting the cold air thats currently sitting on us, areas of the South of England grind to a halt when they get a couple of inches of snow, always makes me chuckle that amount would hardly merit a mention here.

Between storms we expect a dry zone, no rain because of negative vorticity advection, but the models have rain shields coming down from the northeast behind and between each of the storms from the west. Maybe this happens a lot.

 

[Chat Noir]

Friday was a cavalcade of weather madness. There was rain, but then moments of dryness and sunshine and then later on it started properly snowing. This held up as you'd expect given the temperature, with the next day projected to be sunny. Yet as opposed to one of those 'crisp' sunny winter days with a layer of snow, when I opened the back door this morning the heat of the sun was palpable on the outer door frame.
So I went about my business and had to go out. When I got back about 3pm I decided that I might even hang some clothes out to dry (on a rack at the front now the sun had shifted). So whilst there were patches of snow still on the ground the sun dried my clothes, including a couple of jerseys.

This is now the eighth time in the last few months I've put clothes out and had them dry on days you'd never expect it. Which I've never never done before. If I were to revive my deceased grandfather and tell him I dried clothes outdoors in December, January, February and March, he'd tell me to stop hitting the home brew.